The Optimism Trap

"The Optimism Trap – Why every project takes longer and costs more" investigates the "Planning Fallacy." Whether it's a kitchen renovation or the Sydney Opera House (which took 10 years longer and cost 14 times more than planned), humans are biologically incapable of realistic scheduling. We visualize the best-case scenario and ignore the infinite number of things that can go wrong. Project strategist Eleanor Steele explains "Hofstadter's Law": It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. The book advocates for "Reference Class Forecasting"—looking at how long similar projects took others, rather than trusting your own estimate. "The Optimism Trap" is a survival guide for anyone who has ever missed a deadline. It teaches how to strip the emotion out of planning and use "pre-mortems" to predict the disaster before you even lay the first brick.