Monsoon Prediction

Life in India revolves around the Indian southwest monsoon which is the most intense among all global monsoons. It is India’s prime source of water, and Indian agriculture, food grain production and the GDP growth rate are linked to the behaviour of the monsoon rains. This book deals with the particular challenge posed by the need for monsoon prediction, users’ expectations, the current state-of-art in monsoon modelling, present scientific limitations and future prospects. It discusses the projections of monsoon behaviour in the 21st century, and the likely impact of global warming on the monsoon. The book can serve as a textbook for university courses in atmospheric and environmental sciences, as a guide for operational meteorologists, and as a source of reference for scientists, research workers and all others interested in the Indian monsoon. The book covers· Classical and modern theories of the Indian southwest monsoon· Rainfall climatology of the monsoon· Global and regional relationships of the monsoon· Long range forecasting of seasonal monsoon rainfall· Prediction of intraseasonal monsoon elements· Projection of monsoon behaviour in the 21st century· Monsoon field experiments· Current status and future prospects in monsoon prediction Contents 1. The Indian Southwest Monsoon2. Global and Regional Relationships of the Monsoon3. Long Range Forecasting of Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall4. Prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Elements5. Projection of Monsoon Behaviour in the 21st Century6. Monsoon Prediction: Problems and Prospects About the Author R. R. Kelkar received his Ph. D. degree in 1971 for his thesis entitled “Role of Radiation in Atmospheric Circulation”. His first research contribution to the Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics in 1969 was given the best paper award by the journal. He has since published over 50 research papers in various fields. He is also the recipient of the J. Das Gupta Award of the Indian Meteorological Society. He joined the India Meteorological Department in 1965 and retired in 2003 as the Director General of Meteorology. He is currently ISRO Space Chair Professor at the University of Pune. He is a member of the ISRO Advisory Committee on Space Sciences and the Governing Council of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. Earlier, Professor Kelkar was the President of the Indian Meteorological Society from 1997 to 1999. He served as the Permanent Representative of India with the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva from 1999 to 2003 and was an elected Member of the WMO Executive Council. He has earlier written a book on Satellite Meteorology published by us.